What Will Happen to Gas Prices If the Iran War Continues? Here’s What the Experts Say

Gas drivers across the United States have noticed a spike in gas prices after the Iran attack. In California, for example, there is already an increase of about 44 cents in one week, bringing the average cost to more than $5 a gallon. With a barrel reaching more than $90, Americans are wondering how expensive gas will be available – and for how long.

Over the past few decades, ongoing conflicts between the United States and countries in the Middle East have affected fuel prices. The average price per liter in early 2003 was $1.45, but it rose to $1.60 in March when then-president George W. Bush invaded Iraq and crude oil rose to $30 a barrel. It never went above $1.70, but it was the start of a steady rise in prices the following year, reaching over $4 in 2008.

When President Donald Trump launched a drone strike on Iran in 2020 that killed General Qassem Soleimani, oil prices rose again. Crude oil prices jumped to $70 a barrel and gasoline prices rose as fears of a further conflict grew stronger. However, the spike only lasted for a few days when the tension subsided. What are we waiting for this time?

Attacks in the Middle East often lead to higher gas prices because oil production and shipping are often disrupted. This special attack on Iran left the ships in the Persian Gulf. These ships, carrying 20 million barrels of oil per day, could not pass safely through the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting the supply. Unable to export oil, many major oil producers then cut oil production as the conflict continued. This causes wholesalers to panic, worried that they will be affected by large price increases, said oil analyst and consultant Tom Kloza on CNN.

Unfortunately, it’s too soon to know how much oil prices will rise, but it will depend on how long it stops in the Strait of Hormuz – a fifth of the world’s oil goes through there. Jay Young, CEO of King Operating Corporation, told KXAN that he believes barrels could reach more than $100 if the dispute continues for a month or more, as Trump said. GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan (via CNN) said it could even reach $150 if the issues remain closed (so maybe plan on going on some days).

“It’s going to start hitting right away; it’s not waiting for the oil to be produced and bought,” Young said. “It can go to five, six dollars. […] Fill in whatever you can right now, because if this continues to go up or continue, we’re going to see prices go up.”

On the other hand, Kolza, said that he does not believe that it will reach the record of $5.02 that was set in 2022 when the world markets are disturbed. Although the Middle East is the largest exporter of crude oil, there are others around the world. In any case, expect prices to drop once the issues reopen, although they may not fully return to previous prices.