Convertibles occupy a strange, almost contradictory place within modern automotive culture and the auto industry itself. On the other hand, car enthusiasts love manual transmissions for their fun factor and added connectivity, so much so that there are entire communities dedicated to “keeping the manual.” On the wider industry side, however, things aren’t going well for the manual gearbox, with the range of manual transmission cars available every year dwindling and most of them coming in popular sports models.
There has been some speculation that manual transmissions have made a comeback recently, some say this is due to the increased popularity of manual transmissions among Gen Z drivers. Is this happening though? Are young drivers leading a surge in demand for new manual cars that is causing automakers to rethink their product strategies? That part is not so clear.
There may be strong interest in manuals from some Gen Z drivers, but the true market size of this group, and the impact it has on the industry, may be overstated. The trend highlights the importance of distinguishing between vocal commentariat online and real-world car buyers. It also emphasizes the differences, regardless of age group, between niche car enthusiasts and the mainstream car market.
Why Gen Z Are Drawn to Personal Transfers
For decades, manual transmissions with a clutch pedal were the automatic transmissions in the majority of cars, trucks, and SUVs sold in America. In fact, because of this, some people even call them “standard transmissions.” Most buyers would pay more for the convenience of an automatic, but as recently as the mid-2000s, it was still common to see manual transmissions in most cars and trucks. However, these manuals gradually became a sought-after option for drivers who wanted to row their own gears.
With the decline of manual cars, many young drivers have grown up without needing to learn to drive one. Auto enthusiasts, however, are different from your average driver, and for them, the decline in manual options has brought greater respect for stick shift models in the market.
It makes sense that Gen Z might be excited about a manual transmission in a way that older generations didn’t when you consider that they grew up in a world full of automatic cars and EVs, which go faster than a multi-gear gearbox. However, there is a difference between a group showing interest in used cars and having the means to go out and buy brand new ones at significant prices.
Manual Enthusiasm Does Not Equal Market Returns
The exact rate at which the manual will or will not recover is difficult to predict, especially when looking at new car sales. Although there is sometimes a strong demand for books among enthusiasts, that interest is not always sufficient to support a regular supply. For example, the Volkswagen Golf GTI is taking US rates up to 41% of hatchback orders by 2024. Still, these standards weren’t enough to make Volkswagen change its mind about bringing back the manual Golf GTI after installing a stick option for the 2025 model year. On the other hand, you have Subaru planning to add three manual cars to its 2027 lineup.
A 2023 article from the Wall Street Journal highlighted the growing interest in manuals among younger drivers, but some of the enthusiasts featured in the story were driving older. The article also increases the manual share of the new car market rising from 0.9% to 1.7% from 2021 to 2023. However, according to The Washington Post, preliminary government data shows an unprecedented 0.6% decline in new cars produced in the US that include stick shifts. These numbers reinforce the concept of niche manual enthusiasm (especially among younger drivers) against the wider market revolution.
It’s unlikely we’ll ever return to the days when Camrys, CR-Vs and F-150s came standard with manual transmissions, but continued interest from young enthusiasts should help keep today’s dwindling number of portable vehicles from disappearing entirely.